The Benefits of BRAC: An Interview with Gerald Gordon
'The details are that you end up in traffic congestion, but we have jobs,' says FCEDA Chief.
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Severe traffic aside, Base Realignment and Closure is a net positive for the Northern Virginia economy, according to Dr. Gerald Gordon, president and CEO of the Fairfax County Economic Development Authority.
“Ghost towns don’t have traffic. Cities with a 15 percent unemployment rate don’t have heavy traffic during rush hour because nobody is going to work,” said Gordon, who spoke with Patch from his office in Tysons Corner. “Our traffic is all these people going to work. It’s hard to argue.”
And Gordon had advice for commuters: "Start early. Adjust your hours. Go in early, go home early. Go in late, come home late. I think that’s the answer. Or go further out, get near a VRE [Virginia Railway Express] station, and take the train. Carpool."
At Least Northern Virginians Have Jobs...
At 3.7 percent, Arlington has the lowest unemployment rate in the Commonwealth, followed by 4.2 percent for Alexandria City and 4.3 percent for Fairfax County. The national unemployment rate is 8.7 percent and Virginia's is 6 percent.
"When the unemployment rate hits 3.4 here, that means that it’s gonna be seven, eight, 10 percent nationally. And that’s when people stop complaining about the traffic congestion—because they’re on their way to work in that congestion. Whereas everybody has … friends who are losing their jobs, losing their homes … they’re unable to pay their bills, their kids can’t go to college."
More workers in the area means more high-end stores and restaurants. "People who have that kind of income to spend also want upscale restaurants and they don't want to have to drive to Fair Lakes or to Tysons Corner to go to a good mall or go into the City," Gordon said. "So you start to see the beginnings of higher-end retail."
Jobs and Tax Revenue
By Sept. 15, thousands of federal employees will move to offices at Fort Belvoir, the Engineer Proving Ground and Alexandria’s Mark Center off Interstate 395 and Seminary Road.
“The impacts are potentially as much as 50,000 [employees] when you add in the secondary and tertiary workers - people who work to support businesses or provide services to the folks going to Belvoir,” said Gordon. “For [Fairfax County], it's jobs, for people who then will want to have office space nearby because they provide goods and services under contract. That's going to generate tax revenues in the real estate tax base.”
Local businesses will also benefit, said Gordon. "BRAC leads to jobs because people come in and need to have a place to live," he said. "When they move their families in they need to buy groceries, they're going to go to dinner, they're going to buy clothing - all those things that support the individuals who come. This is all really, really important to us, because it's the real estate tax base that generates almost two-thirds of the total general fund in the Fairfax County budget."
At just over 1 million residents, Fairfax County has nearly doubled its population in the last 30 years. “We’re looking at, in less than 15 years, another quarter-million people [living in Fairfax County],” Gordon said. “In Virginia, you cannot stop that… the question becomes, how do you pay for your children’s education? How do you pay for the police and fire protection, the parks, libraries, human services… unless you want to have your individual real estate tax rates go up, which is what’s happening in both Loudon and Prince William Counties? It’s because we have that business community to offset those costs. That’s the big picture. The details are that you end up in traffic congestion, but we have jobs.”
Not Much Available Land for Development
Land for development in the southern portion of the County is scarce. “Up until this point from the beginning of time in Fairfax County, that part of the county was a net draw on the budget," Gordon said. "Now they have the opportunity to become a net contributor to the budget. When a citizen pays a tax dollar they take back far more in public services, primarily because of the schools, than they contribute, and the businesses reverse that.”
BRAC will bring 21,600 Department of Defense employees from various agencies. About 2,300 employees will be shifted from Belvoir, leaving the net gain at 19,300. "Additional tax revenue means an extraordinarily high quality of life," said Gordon. “It means not only a consistent economy, but it also means the best public schools in America. Amongst all the cities and counties in the United States with a population of 100,000 or more, we are first or second every year now for public safety, one of the safest communities of our size in America. We have the highest per capita usage in the library system. You can’t be anywhere in Fairfax County and stand more than four miles from a park.”
Southeastern Fairfax County has 2,250 vacant commercial acres. There will be 10 million square feet of spinoff office space due to the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency at the proving ground in Springfield, according to a November 2010 FCEDA presentation. “We also looked at the available office space in the [Route 1] corridor," Gordon said. "The entire corridor has less than 150,000 square feet vacant. So, it's not anywhere near a sufficient amount of space to accommodate what's coming in."
What will Southern Fairfax County look like ten years down the road?
The Route 1 Corridor and Lorton area have seen a boost in commercial and residential development because of BRAC. "Our estimates from our real estate staff is that in the next 10 years we’ll see eight to 10 million square feet of private commercial office space contributing to the tax base just because of this BRAC, not to mention other iterations of BRAC or other activities going on in that area," Gordon said.
That means changes for central Springfield. "Springfield Metro Center becomes enormously important again," he said. "The one thing that may be an offset to some of the traffic congestion is that if you live south and presently go into Arlington or DC to work, if we can create an employment center in Springfield, you have the congestion up to Springfield, but you may abate some of that congestion between Springfield and DC."
Mark Center
Alexandria's Mark Center off I-395 and Seminary Road will receive 6,400 employees at Washington Headquarters Services. The complex is three miles from the nearest metro station, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers' choice of the location has been questioned.
"We thought the better location would have been in Springfield where the current GSA [General Services Administration] Warehouse site is located," said Gordon. "It didn't work for a variety of reasons, most of which had to do with timing and the expense of removing, primarily, the asbestos in the ground. That would have been an ideal site in our judgement plus it would have been nice to have that warehouse site removed. It's such prime property."
The 6,400 jobs are a six percent increase in Alexandria's employment base. According to an Alexandria cost-benefit analysis of the Mark Center project, "Assuming an estimated range of $75,000 to $100,000 salary per employee per year, the total [WHS] payroll would be between $480 million and $640 million per year overall. Because of the spillover effect, the benefits of this income addition will be spread over the Washington, D.C. region as the BRAC-133 employees largely live outside the City, and therefore will likely to spend most of their disposable income outside of the City.
"There will be increased spending on restaurants and retail by these employees, but that amount of increased spending is not likely to be substantial as government employees tend to spend less disposable income at lunch time near their place of employment than do non-governmental employees. The substantial security features of the [WHS] site, an on-site cafeteria and bank, and the fact that a minimum of 40% of [WHS] employees will not have cars at the site will also tend to negatively influence off site spending during the work day. It is likely that off-site spending will be the greatest in the late afternoons and evenings after ... employees leave work. There also will be… some number of new jobs created from DoD's and its employees' spending," according to the analysis.
But with more jobs comes more traffic. "It’s almost to the point where you have congestion nonstop," said Gordon. "I think what typically happens when they move in a bunch of people at one time, they look for alternative working hours, so they may start early, and these are feds and defense workers, so you might find a lot of them starting at very early in the morning and leaving at 3 [p.m.] to avoid that, but all that may mean is that… in the best of times, you’ve made it more difficult."
Challenging Opportunities
Demand for office space is outpacing supply, and widening Route 1 could prove problematic: "The highway is as broad as it can get. The properties on either side of most of that stretch of highway are right there. Not only are the parcels right on the highway, they’re also very small and narrow, because they go back 100 years. So, you would have to take numerous parcels all the way up and down the corridor, on at least one side, maybe both. The costs of doing that, and the political costs of doing that, would be just exorbitant.
"We have enough space countywide. What we don’t have is enough space in immediate proximity to Fort Belvoir. It means we need to build new," Gordon said. "I don’t believe the county is going to exercise the right of eminent domain and take property, I believe the developers and the companies will go in and assemble enough parcels to get a sizeable footprint for their buildings, which gets compounded through the setback requirements of 85 feet, so now you have to take more and more parcels. So that’s the only way this is going to happen."
Patch recently started a facebook group dedicated to BRAC. Follow us for updates!
Governor Burke
5:25 pm on Wednesday, July 20, 2011
So besides lots of traffic congestion what "benefit" is there to the Mark Center BRAC development. Most of these workers, I'll bet, will not live in the city of Alexandria. Low unemployment is good, but where are these workers relocating from? Mostly other facilities in Northern Virginia? If so, not really a net gain for the region. Too bad the DOD didn't go with the GSA warehouse site next to the Springfield Metro. Besides the transportation issue being better, they'd have the political gain of cleaning up the asbestos. What about the quality of life at Mark Center? Too bad our local elected officials didn't see quality of life as a gain when they embraced this project initially. Now they're running away from it as fast as they can saying "who me?"
TomatoQueen
10:11 am on Thursday, July 21, 2011
Unbelievable. Just more propaganda from the idiots caught flatfooted by this nightmare that they created in answer to avoid postponing the move for another year. What has this clown's board done to factor in provision for affordable housing? The housing around Mark Center now is aging, overpriced for the population it serves, and also owned by the same company (JBG) that made a fortune off the sale of the land involved to the government. This housing will be redeveloped (what, you think it won't?) and will be replaced by MORE overpriced poor quality CONDO housing, not rentals, a net loss to Alexandria. There won't be further transportation planning for the area--what's been done so far was wrongheaded but generated enough paper that nobody can understand it, and there certainly won't be upgraded fire and other services, the city not being able to afford such things. It is outrageous that Fairfax bureaucrats chime in with any comments at all--they failed to help place this highly dubious project in the correct location in the first place, and now they think there's some advantage to it. Meanwhile Alexandria residents in the area are screwed, again.
Susan Birchler
10:14 am on Thursday, July 21, 2011
Someone hasn't done their math. I calculated that if 3000 people, took the metro, the city would need to provide 3 buses running every 15 minutes between 7 & 9AM to accommodate the ridership. The roundtrip, because of rush hour could be an hour. Three buses every fifteen minutes equals 12 buses an hour. The city will have to purchase a minimum of 12 buses to accommodate. Right now the bus stops at Van Dorn Metro are packed and probably will not accommodate the extra buses or traffic, so room on Eisenhower will have to be found for the buses to pick up and discharge passengers. Cost to the city.
Now most people will not sit still for a 1 1/2 to 2 hour commute so people will probably choose to drive. It won't be traffic congestion, it will be gridlock. 6000 cars divided into a 3 hour window, 6 to 9AM, is 2000 cars an hour, 1000 cars every 1/2 hour, 500 extra cars every fifteen minutes that Van Dorn and Seminary is supposed to accommodate. One extra turn lane is not going to solve your problem. The lane to get off 395 to Seminary already spills onto the highway, add 200 to 300 cars to that line and it goes all the way back to Van Dorn.
By opening Brac, essentially the city of Alexandria is choking off access to people attempting to get to cities upstream from them, like Arlington, Crystal City, DC. A commuter living below Seminary will not be able to take 395 to work because they will not be able to get by Seminary. If I was the Pentagon, or Arlington I'd sue!
JohnFitzgerald
10:30 am on Thursday, July 21, 2011
To heck with quality of life - we should all just be thankfull we have jobs. Give me a break! When quality of life goes down, due to traffic and other factors that is a very bad thing for the region - 'good' easily employable employees seek employment and housing elsewhere because they have options. At some point also our region becomes undesireable for employers who seek to relocate away from this region. Quality of life must be part of the equation and one should not focus on speweing out a steady stream of deceptive statistics. What is the true cost of all this development (ie with Mark Center - cost of road improvements, reduced property values, extended commute times, impact on kids sitting in buses 20 more minutes each day). Dont be so myopic. Look at the total picture. Taxpayers and voters sure do
Sally Spangler
1:08 pm on Saturday, September 3, 2011
Quality of life? Nor much. There is an increase in local crime. Read to police reports posted on the various Patch places. Not nice! Back to tiny row houses with single attics from one end to the other. Better hope nothing goes up in a house fire! Resident construction right now is terrible. the new home buyer doesn't see it, but I don't think there is any housing code and certainly no inspectors to really pay attention to the lackadaisical actual construction from exterior to wiring,insulation, actual building, interior including plumbing, heating, doors that fit so that they can be opened properly, and any number of other problems. Many of the new houses are prefab and arrive with all pieces put together, just join those parts to the next piece and the whole thing is up and ready for the owner inside of 3 months and maybe one inspector to look at it before having to run to the next place and do it all over again. Jobs? flipping hamburgers? Real jobs, with chances of advancement? Your hype is nice, but that is all it is.
Cathy Hosek
11:00 am on Thursday, July 21, 2011
It is my understanding that most of the jobs moving to Fort Belvoir are jobs that already exist. People who previously commuted to Crystal City aren't going to move because they got transferred to Belvoir, so saying "Local businesses will also benefit, " and "BRAC leads to jobs because people come in and need to have a place to live," doesn't really apply. The Route One corridor, even with the widening, is not going to be able to handle all that traffic. Housing is being built, but that doesn't mean the people who live there will work at Belvoir.
Route One has needed a major overhaul for as long as I can remember and adding more traffic to it isn't going to help. You can't tell me the people who get transferred but don't live here are going to drive here on weekends and shop for clothes and food. I will be very surprised if big businesses move in because of BRAC.
It can take up to 15 minutes to commute off base so any restaurants used for lunch will have to very close to Belvoir to make it possible for workers to get there, eat and get back over a lunch break. I was excited to see this article because I have been trying to find something positive regarding BRAC, but I don't know how people sitting in cars for hours will help anything. It is just going to make it worse for the people who already live here.
Don Carr
11:28 am on Monday, July 25, 2011
So, Belvoir's current BRAC growth truly contributes little to what has been needed in South County for a long time: significantly increased road capacity. That need has been set in the main due to zoning decisions that have allowed the residential and commercial development that has taken place down this way. BRAC-related traffic may well aggravate the already inadequate Richmond Highway corridor through South County. But, is that because of BRAC, or because of the inadequate corridor? (By the way, except for a couple of turnout lanes for the new hospital at Belvoir, VDOT plans to widen Richmond Highway to six lanes are the same plans VDOT has had on the books for more than 20 years.)
Don Carr
11:29 am on Monday, July 25, 2011
Cathy, you're correct. All but about 500 of the 19,300 jobs being moved to Belvoir will actually add "new population." The rest of the jobs have people in them who already live in this very same Northern Virginia region where highway and byway capacity have been woefully behind demand for more than 30 years, LONG before even previous BRACs.
Important to note, too, that the planners actually disbursed the 19,300 jobs based first and foremost on traffic considerations. Main Post, the part that straddles Richmond Highway, gets only 3,400 of the jobs. Another 8,500 go to Belvoir North, formerly the EPG (by the way, more than 6,000 of them are already in place with absolutely NO discernible impact on the road network around the area). The Mark Center – selected after close coordination with civic officials, including Congress – is to receive 6,400 jobs, and the remaining 1,000 jobs go to Fort Belvoir’s Rivanna Station just outside Charlottesville.
Ron L.
2:12 pm on Thursday, July 21, 2011
All together now. "BRAC" was a big joke from the start...
Ron L.
2:18 pm on Thursday, July 21, 2011
If trafic kept to a crawl, you won't feel the pot holes as you creep over them.. So, it does has an advantage...
Sally Spangler
3:22 pm on Thursday, July 21, 2011
Beside the rising crime rate in our neighborhood - what else is "Good"? I suggest that Fairfax County Economic Development Authority, Gerry Gordon, you look at the truth of this good deal for southern Fairfax County and know that it is anything but a plus for our area! Crime has increased with just what new development we now have. And your will be sure that we will need more police presence, where now we have one officer who makes the rounds twice a day as quickly as he/she can! Forty-five minutes to get police to wherever the crime is happening/has happened? Yeah! Mr. Hyland said some time ago that your end of the county needed more people and business and get rid of the junky areas we have always had. A Joke? No, a huge problem that the county or the Federal and State Governments have no idea how to take care of them.
Kim
7:46 pm on Thursday, July 21, 2011
Yeah, sure whatever you need to tell yourself to make more traffic, crime and congestion more appealing.
Sally Spangler
12:28 pm on Friday, July 22, 2011
Kim - male, no doubt. Yeah-crime, murder, assault, any name you choose for stealing,theft, burglary, mugging - what else? The Reformatory, otherwise known at a prison was closed because of fear of the prisoners breaking out and probably some memories of prison/prisoner movies from many years past. Read the paper Kim and also Lorton Patch! When I moved home again in 1954, Lorton had no stop lights from Belvoir to Furnace Road. You could walk across US 1 without fear. It also meant that the snowy winters, only the highway was plowed. The four corners of US 1 and Route 600 on the west side and Gunston Road on the east, were just country lanes. The Reformatory prisoners were safe and so were the residents. Now? Congestion, auto accidents, what else? Crime? Too many people and their traffic and what else that is positive and will stay that way? Phooey and all Mr. Gordon thinks on BRAC as positive!
Kim
12:32 pm on Friday, July 22, 2011
@Sally Spangler Actually I am female - :-)
demwatchdog@gmail.com
9:43 am on Friday, July 22, 2011
BRAC will open the door for developers, which seems tobe what this writer wishes. Unfortunately it also seems to be what some elected officials want as they consider widening Beauragard to accomodate alll that traffic.
R.Irwin
12:29 pm on Friday, July 22, 2011
This was forced upon us by G.W.Bush and Co.plutocracy. Unfortunately Federal law allows the Federal Gov't. to expropriate and use Federal land any way it wishes. The only recourse is through legislation. Repeal the Patriot act and sell the bldg.
Cindy Smith
6:38 pm on Saturday, July 23, 2011
I don't consider needing to leave for work at 4:00 AM to avoid 3 hours in traffic to be a part of an "extraordinarily high quality of life." At some point, good people refuse to move to the area or simply leave the area to go to more attractive locations. Northern Virginia does not have a monopoly on jobs.
Kim
9:20 pm on Saturday, July 23, 2011
Agreed.
Will Radle
7:03 pm on Saturday, July 23, 2011
Politicians have known since May 2005 and have done nothing to prepare for BRAC. I am standing for chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors and expect voters to hold me accountable.
Sally Spangler
9:27 pm on Sunday, July 24, 2011
May I suggest you tell us why we should vote for you? That would be nice, since this is the first time I have seen your name. Start with how long you have been in the county and what do you do or have done which would be of use as Chairman of the Board of Supervisors?
Will Radle
10:59 am on Monday, July 25, 2011
Sally, thanks for the great questions! I was born at Fairfax Hospital and am employed as an agent with Aflac. Sorry you had not heard of me before. Several local Connection Newspapers carry my commentary. Here is a recent post on my Patch blog: http://fairfaxstation.patch.com/blog_posts/our-communitys-highest-priorities
The most recent speech I have given before the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors can be found at: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ScCL0r9Ixg
My YouTube Channel: http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=willradle1&aq=f
With over 20 years experience serving on state, regional and local public committees as well as nonprofit boards, my focus remains working with people across political and ideological lines to create effective, sustainable solutions for the challenges confronting our community.
Since 2004, I have been actively representing my association on the Lee District Land Use and Transportation Committee. We address issues impacting development density, traffic mitigation, stormwater and wastewater management, and soil conservation.
It is time to unite and stand up for fair treatment of Fairfax County taxpayers and students. Don't you think? I hope my answer helps. Please let me know if you have any other questions for me.
Bea Porter
10:36 am on Monday, July 25, 2011
Dr. Gerald Gordon, president and CEO of the Fairfax County Economic Development Authority, you really don't have a clue. I car pool every day, every day I take a 7 year old to his elementary school in Olde Towne Alexandria, then I take the other car pooler, a 3 year old to his day care at Landmark, I can't start any earlier because school starts at 8:00, then I have to retrieve both of my car poolers before 6:00. To work less than 8 hours a day to accommodate my car pooling issues would not allow me to work full time to support my family members. As a Defense Contractor, I need parking at the BRAC-133 site, the current set up is not allowing contractors to park anywhere near this site. And, you mention new employment, well one must remember the 6400 employees that are moving into that monstrosity are already employed, these are not new employees, not new jobs. There may be some employees that can vary their hours, but there are going to be a lot of them that are in the same boat I am in. Open more parking to the employees that will have to struggle each day, not only getting to the building but having to leave for family emergencies or appointments or errands that can not be run after work hours. Explain to me how all this will be possible. Not everyone has the back up to have someone else help out.
Will Radle
11:09 am on Monday, July 25, 2011
Hold politicians responsible, not our excellent civil servants. I appreciate knowing how this poorly managed opportunity impacts you personally. Democrats and Republicans are standing around staring at each other rather than helping. If I am elected, I expect you to hold me personally accountable. Do the same today.
Sally Spangler
11:52 am on Monday, July 25, 2011
Thank you! The rest, that is soon to be literally in our laps - Well, no doubt I will be looking for some other way to get out of my neighborhood so that I may shop for food, gas for my car, hmm, I guess everything else I may need to live in the "rural" neighborhood of Mason Neck. I have lived in Lorton for over 50 years. I'm not particularly happy with the traffic or the rundown appearance which is now a congested semi- what? rural or urban. nuts!
Will Radle
12:13 pm on Monday, July 25, 2011
My government plan invests $900 million to finally widen Route 1 and extend the Yellow Line toward Prince William County with nodes for commerce along the pathway. We achieve this while lowering real estate taxes to a range of $0.83 to $0.93 per $100 of assessed value.
Sally Spangler
12:32 pm on Monday, July 25, 2011
I see you are in Lee District. If you have a moment, drive south on US 1 from Gunston Cove Road to Furnace Road. How do you make 6 lanes out of the railroad underpass? Has anyone talked to CSX yet? Traffic piles up at that point daily all the way back to the light and before. That overpass has seen some very interesting accidents. Back when RF&P owned the tracks, there was a young man thrown off the motorcycle he was passenger on, and received a permanent injury to his leg. There are enough nicks and pieces missing from that underpass that would really benefit replacement. Also, note the statement of vertical room for trucks to pass under existing underpass. It has been that way for over the 50 years I have lived in Lorton. Trucks still try to scrape under. This is true whether driving north or south! Next are the access ramps to 95 and US1. Two lanes for either. Morning and evening slow going. Really the only times those ramps are free is after 10AM and before 2:30PM. Through Woodbridge can be very interesting any time! Check it out Mr. Radle. An education!
Will Radle
12:47 pm on Monday, July 25, 2011
We have a lot of work to do. Don't we? My opponents are not ready to proceed. They want us to keep waiting. I doubt Spike and Sharon have talked with CSX, but the state has determined the $900 million in project costs. It's been awhile since I have been there and need to revisit the area.
R.Irwin
12:55 pm on Monday, July 25, 2011
First shoot the insurance salesmen
John Michael
9:04 pm on Monday, September 5, 2011
Another legacy of Rumsfeld that will be felt and endured for decades... Walter Reed did not have to close, Fort Monmouth doesn't have to close ... Fort Monroe doesn't have to close and the Mark Center didn't have to be built ... Eisenhower Drive has a building of a million square feet that was just re-furbished and is near by to the Van Dorn (Blue Line) Metro. The joint-base renaming has also buried historic names that have served well for decades. Yes, combining the operations makes sense, but leave the names alone.
It seems that everyone is ignoring that Rumsfeld with his micro-managing played a major role in all this mess - but then he "never looks back..."